How C.J. Stroud is giving Texans offense, and their fans, hope (2024)

Hope is a powerful emotion.

Just ask Houston Texans fans.

A year ago, the Texans floundered to a 3-13-1 finish, and the only hope that could be found came via the dreams of the offseason. Armed with the second-overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Texans had the chance to turn their fortunes around.

With that pick they added quarterback C.J. Stroud from Ohio State.

Could Stroud turn this offense around, and give Texans fans some hope? He was walking into a difficult situation, taking over perhaps one of the league’s worst offenses from a season ago. As shown in this graphic from RBSDM.com which relays offensive efficiency from 2022, you can see just how bad the Houston offense was last year:

After four games in 2023, the Texans are 2-2 and the hope is back. Now look at the difference in these same metrics through four games:

Improvements have been made, particularly in the passing game where the Texans have jumped from perhaps the worst passing games in the league, to the 12th-best unit in the NFL, in terms of Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/P).

Stroud is certainly a big part of that leap. Through four games he has been largely as advertised — accurate, decisive, and ready for the NFL game — and he has the statistics and film to back it up.

One area where he certainly stands out?

Yardage after the catch.

Like sacks, yardage after the catch is in some ways a quarterback statistic. When a quarterback does the little things to help out his receiver, and put them in position for increased yardage after the catch, they are playing the game at a high level.

A season ago the Texans were around the middle of the pack when it came to total YAC, as well as YAC/Reception. Through four games? Houston is second in the league in total YAC (behind only the Miami Dolphins) and second in the league in YAC/R.

And Stroud is a big reason why. The rookie passer is doing some of the little things — ball placement, timing, anticipation, and manipulation — that matter so much both at the position generally, as well as in terms of creating YAC opportunities for his receivers.

Take this completion to Robert Woods from his first NFL start:

This is a simple hitch route, thrown against off coverage. The bare expectation here is a completion, given the cushion that Woods has, but the QB/WR turn this nine-yard throw into a 19-yard gain, thanks to the timing, anticipation, and placement from the quarterback. Stroud gets this ball out well before Woods makes his break/stop, maximizing the cushion the receiver has against the coverage.

Beyond that, he puts this throw to the outside shoulder, leading Woods away from the leverage of the defender.

If this throw is a step late, or left inside, it is likely broken up, or worse.

Instead Woods is able to make the catch, spin upfield, and turn this into a 19-yard gain.

On this completion against the Indianapolis Colts, Stroud adds manipulation to the process:

Stroud rips this post route to Nico Collins both on time and in rhythm, but by sprinkling in some manipulation, and makes life easier for himself, and his receiver. The Colts are in Cover 3 on this snap, with three deep defenders in zone coverage, and four underneath defenders in zone coverage.

The biggest underneath threat to this throw is linebacker Zaire Franklin. But Stroud opens to the left side here, and with three receivers to that side of the field, Franklin has to respect the threat to that side. The linebacker opens that way and slides a few steps towards that side of the field, and away from Collins.

That widens the throwing lane, and Stroud resets his feet, rips in a perfect throw — made easier by that bit of manipulation — and hits Collins in stride. A 12-yard throw turns into a 28-yard gain thanks to timing, accuracy, anticipation, and yes, manipulation.

Later in the game Stroud connected with fellow rookie Tank Dell on this out route, and once more you see a completion turned into a big YAC play, this time a touchdown:

The timing here is what stands out on this play. Once again, Stroud opens to his left before throwing to his right, using a three-step drop from the shotgun. But while his eyes are trained on the left side of the field during his first two steps, by the time he is hitting his third and final step, his eyes are back to the right. Why? Because he has deciphered the coverage and knows exactly where he wants to go with the ball, which is to Dell on his out route against off zone coverage.

Instead of hitching up in the pocket after that final step, Stroud drives his right foot in the turf and immediately begins to throw. The timing could not be better:

The result of that timing? Dell gets to do more than just make the catch. The timing from Stroud puts him in position to make that defender miss, which he does, spinning inside of the cornerback and then into the end zone for the touchdown.

Dell gets the YAC stats, but Stroud certainly deserves an assist.

Stroud’s ability to create YAC opportunities continued Sunday, in Houston’s 30-6 rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Take this completion from the rookie quarterback to John Metchie III:

The Steelers are in zone coverage here, and Stroud comes right to the in-breaking route from Metchie working from left-to-right. The completion is a fairly easy task — as far as completing a pass in the NFL goes — but the critical component for our analysis here is the timing and anticipation.

There is no hesitation from Stroud on this throw:

Metchie is getting into his break, but Stroud is already bringing his arm forward on the throw. He’s not waiting for Metchie to get open, he is anticipating that break and throwing him open. The result? Metchie not only makes the catch, but he has time to make the lurking safety miss in space.

This is how a 13-yard throw becomes a 22-yard gain.

This is the difference between being an average NFL QB, and something more.

Average NFL QBs complete this throw, but it may be a 13-yard throw that results in a 13-yard gain. When a quarterback is consistently turning these kinds of throws into something more, that is huge for an offense.

It gives that offense hope.