Search Dropdown Menu
Advanced Search
User Tools Dropdown
Register
Sign In
Toggle MenuMenu
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
Research Article| May 24 2024
Maria Winkler-Dworak;
Maria Winkler-Dworak
Vienna Institute of Demography (OeAW), Vienna, Austria
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Search for other works by this author on:
This Site
Maria Pohl;
Maria Pohl
Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Center for Demographic Studies, Barcelona, Spain
Search for other works by this author on:
This Site
Eva Beaujouan
University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria
Search for other works by this author on:
This Site
Demography 11315685.
- Views Icon Views
- Article contents
- Figures & tables
- Video
- Audio
- Supplementary Data
- Peer Review
- Tools Icon Tools
-
Permissions
Cite Icon Cite
-
- Search Site
Citation
Maria Winkler-Dworak, Maria Pohl, Eva Beaujouan; Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated Cohort Fertility Levels. Demography 2024; 11315685. doi: https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11315685
Download citation file:
- Zotero
- Reference Manager
- EasyBib
- Bookends
- Mendeley
- Papers
- EndNote
- RefWorks
- BibTex
Abstract
Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970–1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.
Cohort fertility, Fertility postponement, Fertility recovery, First-birth risks, Microsimulation
The text of this article is only available as a PDF.
Copyright © 2024 The Authors
2024
Issue Section:
Articles
You do not currently have access to this content.
Sign in
Don't already have an account? Register
Client Account
You could not be signed in. Please check your email address / username and password and try again.
Forgot password?
Don't have an account?
Sign in via your Institution
Sign In
Buy This Digital Article
Advertisem*nt
6 Views
View Metrics
Citing articles via
Google Scholar
Email alerts
Advance Publication
Latest Issue
Close Modal
Related Articles
Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors
Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France
The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note
Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000
Related Topics
Cohort fertility
Fertility postponement
Fertility recovery
First-birth risks
Microsimulation
- About Demography
- Editorial Board
- For Authors
- Advertise
- Rights and Permissions Inquiry
- Online ISSN 1533-7790
- Print ISSN 0070-3370
- Copyright © 2024
- Duke University Press
- 905 W. Main St. Ste. 18-B
- Durham, NC 27701
- USA
- Phone
- (888) 651-0122
- International
- +1 (919) 688-5134
- Contact
- Contact Us
- Information For
- Advertisers
- Book Authors
- Booksellers/Media
- Customers
- Educators
- Journal Authors/Editors
- Journal Subscribers
- Librarians
- Prospective Journals
- Licensing and Subsidiary Rights
- Societies
- Careers
- View Open Positions
- emailJoin our Mailing List
- catalogCurrent Catalog
- © Duke University Press. All Rights Reserved.
- Accessibility
- Legal
- Privacy
- Get Adobe Reader
Close Modal
Close Modal
This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only
Sign In or Create an Account
Close Modal
Close Modal
This site uses cookies. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to our privacy policy.
Accept