Is the US in a bull or bear market?
The benchmark's new record high close confirms that the S&P 500 ended a bear market when it closed on Oct. 12, 2022, and that it has been in a bull market since then, according to one measure. The S&P 500 had lost nearly 25% in a sell off between its last record high on Jan. 3 2022 and its low in October 2022.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
While investors have cheered impressive earnings and all-time highs for the market, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio has crept up to 20.4, about 15% above its 10-year average of 17.7. For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024.
Specifically, the S&P 500 is up 36.1% since the current bull market started on Oct. 12, 2022. That implies upside of 25% through October 2024.
Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss. Cash doesn't grow in value; in fact, inflation erodes its purchasing power over time. Cashing out after the market tanks means that you bought high and are selling low—the world's worst investment strategy.
Key Takeaways. The U.S. equity market's rally at the end of 2023 has left stocks overvalued, with little room for error. Analysts' estimates for 2024 corporate earnings may be too optimistic, given a likely tapering in U.S. economic growth. Markets may also be overestimating the number of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Is 2024 a good time to invest?
Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
Berkshire owns shares in two prominent S&P 500 funds, but they're far from the only ones on the market. Each one you come across will give you roughly the same exposure and roughly the same returns. The major differentiator is cost. Take the two funds in Buffett's portfolio.
If you'd invested back in October 2022 when the S&P 500 bottomed out, you'd have earned substantial returns by today. But hindsight is 20/20, and since you can't go back in time, your only options are to invest now or wait. Between those two options, investing now is almost always more lucrative.
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
No one, including the company that issued the stock, pockets the money from your declining stock price. The money reflected by changes in stock prices isn't tallied and given to some investor. The changes in price are simply an independent by-product of supply and demand and corresponding investor transactions.
If you are saving up for a short-term goal and will need to withdraw the funds in the near future, you're probably better off parking the money in a savings account. Conversely, if your goals are longer in duration, you'll generally find you can obtain more satisfactory results from investing.
Yes, you can pull money out of a brokerage account with a bank account transfer, a wire transfer, or by requesting a check. You can only withdraw cash, so if you want to withdraw more than your cash balance, you'll need to sell investments first.
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
Investors are likely drawn to the stock market now as it continues to hit fresh highs. After the market tanked in 2022, it came roaring back last year. The S&P 500 soared 24% in 2023, and it started to hit fresh, all-time highs throughout the month of January this year.
Will the stock market grow in the next 10 years?
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
If you're 70, you should keep 30% of your portfolio in stocks. However, with Americans living longer and longer, many financial planners are now recommending that the rule should be closer to 110 or 120 minus your age.
But now that Americans are living longer, that formula has changed to 110 or 120 minus your age — meaning that if you're 75, you should have 35% to 45% of your portfolio in stocks. Using this formula, if your portfolio totals $100,000, then you should have no less than $35,000 in stocks and no more than $45,000.
Near and current retirees are often encouraged to invest their money so it's able to grow. If you're 65, it means you may want to keep a notable portion of your portfolio in safer assets. It can still make a lot of sense for a 65-year-old to own stocks.
The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
